The 152nd Kentucky Derby will be held on the 2nd of May 2026. While the jockeys are preparing for this momentous race, punters are preparing their betting strategies. Some are betting on the fan favourite Commandment, while others hope Danon Bourbon will secure the first Kentucky Derby win for a Japanese horse. Read on to learn about the various picks and some important trends.
Expert Picks
Many of the top experts have already prepared their picks for the race. For example, SportsLine’s horse racing expert Jody Demling has picked Fulleffort to win, despite the horse being an underdog starting at post 20.
Meanwhile, he believes Chief Wallabee will lose, as the horse has placed worse in every subsequent race it has appeared in. The current odds for all the horses, according to Demling, are:
While these are just Demling’s predictions, he has correctly predicted the winner of the Kentucky Oaks and Derby twelve times in the last 17 years. Meanwhile, other experts are betting on Commandment to win, as he has not lost since his win in Louisville in November 2025.
However, it’s always important to check out the latest Kentucky Derby betting tips for any updates and news on the horses. If a horse withdraws, it can be replaced with one of the other eligible horses like Great White, Ocelli, Robusta and Corona de Oro.
Road to the Derby
When making Kentucky Derby betting predictions, it’s also important to check the horse’s history, as previous races could offer a hint at its performance. Aside from finishing worse in each subsequent race, Chief Wallabee has also seen its Beyer Speed figures fall from 133 to 121, which may be a sign of poor performance. Meanwhile, Fulleffort won the Jeff Ruby Steaks in March. A few key points for some of the horses include:
- Renegade won the Sam F. Davis and Arkansas Derby races.
- Emerging Market ran four furlongs in 48.4 seconds at Payson Park.
- So Happy is partnered with Hall of Famer Mike Smith.
- Commandment leads the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 150 points.
Many of the horses have shown strong performance in their Road to Kentucky Derby races. Danon Bourbon has become popular after a tough race in the Fukuryu Stakes, where he had to beat Don Erectus. Currently, all participants have arrived and are completing their final training sessions before the big race.
Kentucky Derby Trends
While each horse has its own achievements, it’s also important to consider the trends surrounding the Kentucky Derby. For example, 20% of the horses in this year’s race have not had a start as two-year-olds. While people used to think such horses couldn’t win the Derby, that changed when Justify won the Derby in 2018. A few other important trends include:
- Late runners generally have a disadvantage in the race.
- The Santa Anita Derby and Florida Derby are considered the best prep races.
- Horses who ran the last three-eighths of a mile in their final prep races in 38 seconds or less usually have a higher chance at winning.
- Horses that finish fourth or better in their last prep race usually have a higher chance of winning.
Based on these trends alone, it’s clear why Commandment is a popular pick for Kentucky Derby betting. His last race was the Florida Derby, where he ran the last three-eighths of a mile in 36 seconds, and he has raced three times this year.
However, as the results of the Cheltenham Festival in 2026 show, underdogs can pull a surprise win. Many are hoping Danon Bourbon could be the first international horse to win the Derby.
Post Positions
Interestingly, post positions can sometimes be important in Kentucky Derby betting. For example, post 17 has never produced a Derby winner and the last time a horse from that post got close was Forty Niner in 1988.
Meanwhile, post 1 can be a challenge, as breaking out from the innermost post and the crowd is difficult. Here is a breakdown of each post’s chances of producing a winner:
Going purely by post positions, Fulleffort, Wonder Dean, and Right to Party might have the best chance of winning. Last year’s winner, Sovereignty, started from post 16, but post 20 has the highest historical win rate because horses from that post can sometimes run a shorter distance. However, if the horse doesn’t break out quickly enough, it may struggle to catch the runners on the inside.
Weather Report
One of the most unpredictable aspects of the race is the weather. Rain could significantly alter track conditions, potentially changing the winner. Fulleffort has experience on turf and synthetic surfaces, so a dirt track may prove challenging, while Commandment has experience with this type of track. Current weather forecasts for Louisville are:
- 16% chance of precipitation
While the weather on Friday will be rainy, which is an issue for the Kentucky Oaks, the current Derby forecast calls for dry, cool, partly sunny weather. However, historical data suggests a 48% chance of rain, so punters should be ready to adjust their Kentucky Derby betting strategies. Last year’s weather created sloppy conditions, which allowed Sovereignty to beat the favourite Journalism.
Conclusion
Keeping track of the horses and the track’s conditions is the best way to ensure you have a solid strategy. However, there’s always a chance the underdog can pull off a surprising victory, so it’s worth sticking with your favourite after considering all the factors. Remember to gamble responsibly and contact organisations like the Kentucky Council on Problem Gambling if you need professional help.